Could Obama or McCain lose their party nomination?

We have been discussing the GE strategies of both the candidates. The poll numbers and policy positions are a matter of daily discussion. Is there a possibility that either of the candidates could lose their party nominations?

Could this happen if their poll numbers tank? What about a scandal? I do not believe it ever happened before. I do not believe either party would drop their nominee because they have reached a point of no return. Do you agree?

Any physical harm to the candidates is totally out of the Mix. Don't even go there!


Poll
Is there a scenario where this could happen?
Yes
NO
We have reached a point of no return

Votes: 30
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


Kinda useless to speculate (2.00 / 2)

Unless one of them has a health problem, I don't see it happening, and it's useless to speculate on such small odds.

They both won their primaries fair and square.  McCain is a compromise candidate between the fiscal and the social conservatives; choosing someone else would alienate half their base and guarantee a loss.

On the other side, there is so much invested in Obama that it would rip apart the Democratic party if they got to the convention and somehow, some way, the delegates chose someone else.  It would alienate younger and black voters for a full generation, and make us look like idiots.

In short: No.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 09:18:36 AM EST

Re: Kinda useless to speculate (2.00 / 1)

Of course it could happen. In short, yes.

It's fully within the rights of each party to change its mind.


If you want Unity, nominate a Democrat
by rankles on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 09:19:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yay (2.00 / 1)

I'm eager to hear your thoughts on the percentage liklihood of this happening.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 10:16:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kinda useless to speculate (2.00 / 0)

In extraordinary circumstances and only those. Otherwise it becomes a subversion of democracy and a huge flaw within the system, since polls are so easily gamed.


If you're being chased by an angry bull and then you notice you're also being chased by a swarm of bees, it doesn't really change things. Just keep on running.
by vcalzone on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 11:05:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kinda useless to speculate (none / 0)

As the Obama backers were so eager to tell us during the primary season, the popular vote makes absolutely no difference in a nomination battle.  


If you want Unity, nominate a Democrat
by rankles on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 02:22:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kinda useless to speculate (none / 0)

We were eager to point out that popular vote is not the metric, it is delegate count. Obama won the pledged delegates, he should win.

Is there a chance Obama might not get it? Of course! Is it likely to happen without drastic changes in the race, and I mean DRASTIC changes? Not at all. Obama would have to be trailing by 15 points before that became a valid point of contention.

So there IS a possibility, but pretending that it is currently a high one is foolish.


If you're being chased by an angry bull and then you notice you're also being chased by a swarm of bees, it doesn't really change things. Just keep on running.
by vcalzone on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 03:23:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary is done (2.00 / 1)

let it go.


"Is there no keeping with class in whom we mingle with anymore?"
by Brandon on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 09:18:45 AM EST

Re: Hillary is done (2.00 / 1)

The diarist in no way even mentioned Senator CLinton, he only asked if anybody thought it was possible that either candidate could still lose the nomination.


by Ignored and Disgusted on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 02:25:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary is done (1.00 / 1)

You're right.  Why would anyone think that Clinton would be next in line for the nomination if Obama was RFK'd?

Oh, and your PUMA is showing. You might want to tuck it back in.


by Can I Haz Moar Snark on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 05:12:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary is done (2.00 / 2)

She's the most progressive and qualified candidate we have, much more qualified than the centrist moderate Obama.


If you want Unity, nominate a Democrat
by rankles on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 02:23:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary is done (none / 0)

HAD.


If you're being chased by an angry bull and then you notice you're also being chased by a swarm of bees, it doesn't really change things. Just keep on running.
by vcalzone on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 03:27:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary is done (none / 0)

Oh, we still have her.  And we love her.


If you want Unity, nominate a Democrat
by rankles on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 05:46:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary is done (1.00 / 1)

OK, that tone makes it sound like you have a mannequin that you have dressed up as Hillary that you keep in your basement.


If you're being chased by an angry bull and then you notice you're also being chased by a swarm of bees, it doesn't really change things. Just keep on running.
by vcalzone on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 08:13:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary is done (none / 0)

I have an alec baldwin mannequin in my basement.


I'm for a timeline on Iraq, public funding of elections, women's reproductive rights, gun restrictions and universal suffrage. So why should I vote for Obama?
by William Cooper on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 09:43:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Could Obama or McCain lose their party nomina (2.00 / 1)

In a rational universe, yes.  This is a rational universe and thus I can conceive of the possibility, but by the same token, I could conceive of zombies.  Unless McCain should suddenly fall ill (or Obama for that matter), it's unlikely.  I do secretly wonder, though, if the Republicans are prepared to field another candidate if McCain should fall ill.  Who would it be?  Huckster?


by ejintx on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 09:23:08 AM EST

Re: Could Obama or McCain lose their party nomina (none / 0)

Romney.


If you're being chased by an angry bull and then you notice you're also being chased by a swarm of bees, it doesn't really change things. Just keep on running.
by vcalzone on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 03:28:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No. n/t (2.00 / 1)


Even John McCain lusts after teh engels.
by sricki on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 09:30:44 AM EST

This is a comment, not a diary. (2.00 / 0)


by SocialDem on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 09:35:09 AM EST

oops sorry. (none / 0)


by SocialDem on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 09:35:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks! (none / 0)


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 09:36:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This is a comment, not a diary. (none / 0)


by SocialDem on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 09:35:22 AM EST

You told me once, no need to repeat! (none / 0)


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 09:38:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Sorry ;) Read my other comment. (none / 0)


by SocialDem on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 10:20:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Could Obama or McCain lose their party nomina (2.00 / 1)

Theoretically, sure.

Theoretically, though, two meteors could fall at exactly the same time on the locations where they're campaigning.

However, if someone's paying out any less than 1,000,000-1 on John McCain or Barack Obama not being the nominee, don't take it.


Join the Matthew 25 Network and help Democrats win the next generation of evangelicals.
by mistersite on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 09:45:57 AM EST

No. (2.00 / 1)

Next question.


by Geekesque on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 09:47:59 AM EST

Re: Could Obama or McCain (none / 0)

'Could' is the key word here.
Could it happen?
Sure.
Theoretically, there are very few things that fall outside the realm of 'it could happen'.

However, 'will' is far more definitive.
WILL it happen?
Nope.

Come November we will be voting in a contest between Barack Obama (D) and John McCain (R).

I, for one, am voting for the one with the (D) next to his name.  ;)
Something tells me that the majority of my fellow Americans will be doing the same.
I look forward to President Barack Obama.
:)


by Kysen on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 10:34:57 AM EST

Re: Could Obama or McCain (none / 0)

I'm writing in Hillary or voting for an Indy.


If you want Unity, nominate a Democrat
by rankles on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 05:50:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Could Obama or McCain lose their party nom.. (2.00 / 1)

If the polls show an insurmountable lead of Obama over McCain before the republicon convention, then I could see the GOP nominating a dark horse.  Perhaps even Jeb Bush.  I'll bet there's not a republicon who would object.


by wblynch on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 11:24:27 AM EST

When McCain drops out (2.00 / 1)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-rose nbaum/when-mccain-drops-out_b_107236.htm l


by gaf on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 11:53:32 AM EST

McCain, maybe (none / 0)

There's a dimension imaginable in which McCain, clearly getting trounced in every metric deep into September, drops out "for health reasons."

His VP choice (whoever that ends up being) steps in as the party nominee, and the media fixate on it throughout October. This VP might well be a lesser-known quantity with enough marketable qualities for the media to lap up. He offers vague palliatives and standard conservative bromides designed to both confuse and assure the base, while presenting a less-antiquated alternative to Obama.

Actually, it wouldn't surprise me at all. Tossing out a new, last-minute product and hoping it sells might be the Republicans' only chance this time. It's their Hail Mary, if it comes to that.

Obama, on the other hand, is our solid nominee, and will be the next president.


"The world is a mess, and I just need to rule it." -- Dr. Horrible
by BobzCat on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:12:13 PM EST

Re: McCain, maybe (2.00 / 1)

"might well be a lesser-known quantity with enough marketable qualities for the media to lap up. He offers vague palliatives and standard conservative bromides designed to both confuse and assure the base"

If you replace conservative with progressive it sounds like you're talking about Obama.

The Old Obama, I mean.  Heck, even the Recent Obama.  But not the New Obama.  The New Obama is starting to get quite definitive.  For instance:

1 Warrantless wiretapping immunity

2 NAFTA! hip hip hooray!

3 Out of Iraq?  That was overheated and amplified rhetoric...we're going to 'rethink' Iraq.

4 Public Financing - show me the money!

Of course these are only a few of the more egregious examples.


I'm for a timeline on Iraq, public funding of elections, women's reproductive rights, gun restrictions and universal suffrage. So why should I vote for Obama?
by William Cooper on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 09:52:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain, maybe (none / 0)

Thanks for your views. By the bye, which candidate are you supporting in November?


"The world is a mess, and I just need to rule it." -- Dr. Horrible
by BobzCat on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 02:37:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain, maybe (none / 0)

As a progressive, I'm duty bound to vote for the only progressive I see in the field.

You do the math.


I'm for a timeline on Iraq, public funding of elections, women's reproductive rights, gun restrictions and universal suffrage. So why should I vote for Obama?
by William Cooper on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 04:57:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain, maybe (none / 0)

You seem determined to reduce the field to just John McCain. But perhaps you have other agendas.


"The world is a mess, and I just need to rule it." -- Dr. Horrible
by BobzCat on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 06:48:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

McCain lose (none / 0)

I do not think McCain could lose his and the only way Obama loses his is if another Reverend Wright like Scandal emerges that he cannot cover with a speech.


by Ignored and Disgusted on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 02:27:32 PM EST

Re: Could Obama or McCain (none / 0)

Only a serious health issue or a Spitzer-sized scandal will stop it at this point.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 03:28:49 PM EST


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